It happens every year: Upset Saturday. It’s a Saturday when the totally unexpected happens. Multiple teams lose, and they lose to teams no one expected them to lose to. Then, everyone asks, “Why?” Why not? Five top 10 teams lost over the last weekend of college football, and some of them left us scratching our heads. Does anyone remember when Utah whipped UCLA earlier this season. Yeah, we’re still scratching our heads. Utah has fallen a long way from when they were coached by Urban Meyer. Which brings us back to this year’s first (Could there be more?) “Upset Saturday.” Coach Meyer’s Florida Gators, fresh off their less than stellar performance in Oxford against Ole Miss lost to Auburn, at home. It seems the Gators learned their lesson. Auburn’s two losses this year includes South Florida (that one doesn’t look so bad) and Miss State.

Every year you hear some team’s coach and players say something about taking it “one game at a time.” Do they really believe that? Or, are they just playing media politics. You know, saying what they are suppose to say. I mean, they have the media to tell them just how good they are, or are not. That’s called hype. They can read the hype just as well as I can. There is the internet, the hometown newspaper paper, the campus newspaper, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, SI.com, ESPN.com, Yahoo Sports, Fox Sports, etc. , etc. They can watch their own highlights on TV. Oh, and they have their campus’ fans to tell them how great they are. It’s got to be a challenge for them to be focused each week. They also have a host of other responsibilities including their schoolwork.

Then, there is the opponent. They watch hours of film. They break down their weaknesses. They make note of their strengths. And, then they have see their opponents record, who they’ve played, etc. We also must not forget that these are 18 to 23 year old students. Focus is everything in college football now. Parity exists. If anyone doubts it, may I suggest you watch the Michigan vs. Appalachian State game from earlier this year. Other evidence includes the fact that two Sun Belt teams have beaten a team from a BCS conferences this year (Florida Atlantic defeated Minnesota and Troy beat Oklahoma State), and Arkansas State was competitive against Texas. Does that mean that the Sun Belt Conference winner now deserves a BCS Bowl Bid? No, but you see that parity exists more now than ever.

Therefore, the wins by USC and LSU over the weekend seem even more impressive. LSU was playing a inferior Tulane team on the road. If you are a 19 yr. old kid playing for LSU, how do you get psyched up for Tulane? USC beat a gutsy Washington team on the road. Washington’s offense wasn’t all that great, but several mistakes by USC’s offense and several Trojan injuries kept the Huskies in the game. These two unimpressive outings for each team exposes the fact that each team is beatable. However, each team found a way to win. Admittedly, LSU ended up winning handily. These kinds of games happen every year, often more than a team would really like. It’s up to the team to win when their play is lacking. If anyone followed the National Champion Florida Gators last season, they would not have been overly impressed. But, they found a way to win games in which their best play wasn’t there. Some games are easier than others to have focus.

It is this time of the season when teams are entering conference play. This is usually when the potential for upsets is worse. Conference teams play each other every year, knowing each other very well. They may have easily beaten the same conference opponent the year before. There is also more game film on each team now. A smart coach, offensive or defensive coordinator, can devise a unique game plan for a good team based on a weakness found in game film. It seems every year a “cellar dweller” sneaks up on someone for the upset. Again, focus is important. I would be a little surprised if their are two unbeaten teams left at the end of the year playing for the National Title. If there are, I would think it would be LSU and USC, but both teams have a tough conference schedule left to play.

The two teams that will play in January down in N’awlins for the National Title will be the ones who take it “one game at a time.” They will be the teams who have the most focus through the 12 games (or possibly 13 if they play in a conference championship game). And, when the confetti is falling after one team wins the title, and the star player or coach says on national tv that his team took it “one game at a time,” I’ll believe him.

Week Five brought new faces to the top of Collgefootballtopten.com. With five upsets in the top ten, the challenge was finding teams to fill those slots. West Virginia, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas and Rutgers all lost last weekend, and only West Virginia lost to a team ranked in the Top 25 (South Florida).

Of the others, only Texas lost to a team who was ranked in the new AP poll. Which makes me ask, “Why did the Longhorns drop all the way to 19th?” Texas lost to Kansas State who debuted in the Top 25 at 24. Not that bad of a loss, especially if they are good enough to be ranked this week. Where’s the love for the Longhorns? I guess the close calls earlier in the season weren’t forgotten.

Florida lost at home to Auburn who is not ranked this week. Florida only fell to 9th in the AP. Of course, Auburn beat Kansas State earlier in the year. Shouldn’t that put Auburn ahead of Kansas State?

Oklahoma lost to Colorado close and on the road, but the Buffs aren’t in the Top 25 this week either. The Sooners only dropped to 10th (AP).

Rutgers lost to Maryland who is also not ranked this week. The Scarlet Knights dropped further than Texas, all the way down to 21st (AP).

Those who didn’t lose, including Wisconsin, moved up giving Cal a number 3 ranking and LSU finally at number 2. Wisconsin has been flirting with disaster, but outlasted an undefeated Michigan State team. Ohio State seems to be getting better. Then, Kentucky, S. Florida, Boston College, S. Carolina, and Oregon entered into the mix.

I had to consider many one loss teams. I decided not to include Oklahoma and Florida because they lost to unranked teams. I believe that Oklahoma’s loss was a focus loss, meaning they weren’t focused. The Colorado game was the first game the Sooners played outside of the state of Oklahoma (OU played at Tulsa the week before, which is, of course, in Oklahoma).

Kentucky, and S. Florida have beaten top 10 teams and are undefeated. BC, who is undefeated, beat Georgia Tech who was ranked 15th on the road a few weeks ago. So, they are in.

As for S. Carolina, their only loss is at LSU, and they beat Georgia earlier this year. Oregon has kept on winning, and they matched Cal Saturday before losing at the very end, a lost to a top 5 team. So, I included them in my top ten in front of Florida and Oklahoma. However, five weeks is just not enough time to know who is really good. Some of the teams who are undefeated haven’t played significant competition. The coming weeks will be helpful as teams enter into conference play.

See my poll here.

The top ten teams made it easy for me because they all won (Rutgers did not play). There were some close calls, but all made it past another week with a win.

Florida struggled on the road against Ole Miss, but Coach Meyer warned us about this being a tough game for his young defense and their first on the road. One guy which it wasn’t tough for was Tim Tebow. Many now have him as their favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

Wisconsin struggled at home with Iowa. It’s clear that the Badgers are not quite as good as many thought at the beginning of the year (including me!).

LSU struggled a little to beat South Carolina. But, I imagine a few teams will struggle to beat the Gamecocks this year. Besides, LSU can’t blow out every team every week.

Oklahoma didn’t struggle, but Tulsa provided them with the biggest challenge for their Defense. And, the Golden Hurricane delivered putting up 21 points on the Sooners, more than any other opponent this year. As much as I like this year’s Sooners, they have yet to play a top rated team. North Texas, Miami, Utah State and Tulsa is not a tough opening slate. That’s 79 (North Texas), 51 (Miami), 54 (Utah State), and 62 (Tulsa) points they have scored in their games. They have a very favorable schedule (5 out 12 games on the road) along with their biggest conference games at home (Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State). Their game with Texas is on “the road” in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl. They play there every year, so it is just as much a “road” game for them as it is for Texas. However, Bob Stoops has this team poised for a legitimate run at the National Title Game. The Trojans and the Tigers can’t really afford a loss, especially late in the season, if either one wants to play for the Title. The Sooners will be waiting to take their spot. This is why we need a playoffs.

Look for Oregon vs. Cal to settle the number 2 team in the Pac 10 this week. I am not sure if either team will knock USC off their perch. Cal has the tools, but I am not sure they have the focus. They seem to be floating along until they have their big game with the Trojans on November 10. Cal still has two road games against Top 25 teams (Oregon this week and Arizona St. Oct. 27). In between is a dangerous but baffling UCLA team. If Cal wants to be number 1 in the Pac 10, they have to take care of business.

Just a question. Does West Virginia ever play on any night other than Thursday? That is a shame, because I would like to see them play Saturday night on ABC. I don’t care who they would play. However, let me offer a couple of suggestions: at Rutgers Oct. 27 and/or at Cincinnati Nov. 17. I know I would be watching.

Check out the poll.

The new poll has been released for Collegefootballtopten.com. With the loss of Louisville, which I suspected might happened (see my last post and look under “trap games”), I had to include a new team in the top ten. The two finalists were Penn State and Rutgers, neither of which were on my radar in the beginning. However, those two teams have a common opponent. Both played the University of Buffalo. Penn State played them this week and won fairly handily, but Buffalo’s offense clicked in the second half making it a little closer than they would’ve liked (45-24). In Buffalo’s first game they played at Rutgers. Rutgers beat them by 35 points (38-3). I know it’s the first game of the season and teams improve by their third game and Buffalo was better by the time they played Penn State, but wouldn’t the same be true about Rutgers? Rutgers seems to have a solid and improving defense, and the offense seems to be getting more explosive with each game. Therefore, by virtue of Buffalo, Rutgers gets the 10th spot.

Texas drops in the poll after they struggled with UCF. Ohio State looked impressive at Washington and is showing why Jim Tressel is the best coach in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes are now ahead of Wisconsin after their lousy showing against the Citadel. Cal faired better against LA Tech than Hawaii did earlier this year. The top five is basically everybody’s top five. I am waiting to see Oklahoma play against a team with substance to see how good they are. This week they are at Tulsa where the defense should get it’s best challenge to date. Tulsa runs a wide open spread attack directed by former Razorback Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn. I am extremely interested in how Spurrier’s South Carolina team lines up against LSU. LSU set several starters and still thumped Middle Tennessee Saturday. Do you remember them? The almost beat Louisville. West Virginia keeps winning, but is their defense BCS worthy? Finally, USC looked December good against Nebraska. They seem to have an improved running game, and that will only help QB John David Booty’s success. Their defense was “lights out” against the run forcing Nebraska to pass on almost every play. Nebraska QB Sam Keller played well, but didn’t have enough weapons to play from behind. The Cornhuskers were still playing to win when they couldn’t showing an incredible amount of resilience and refusing to quit. That may be the kind of character that gives Nebraska the Big Twelve North Title and challenge for the conference championship in December.

Two weeks of football and we don’t know much more than we did before. Four teams, according to Terry Bowden look real good. They are LSU, Oklahoma, Florida and USC. Of those four schools, well, no one has played on the road. USC gets the first road test this week at Nebraska. Cal, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Nebraska struggled to get a win. Only Louisville’s win was at home. LSU does look really good, however, with a big win over Virginia Tech. I am waiting to see, however, how these teams respond to a road game. Road game troubles seems to be the theme so far.

You’ll see in my poll that LSU, Oklahoma and Florida all moved up significantly. There is no sense leaving them at the bottom of the poll if they are that good. The teams that dropped struggled to win. But let’s not be harsh, they did play on the road. And, as we have seen, focus does tend to fade sometimes when college students are playing. There are a few “trap” games this week. They are West Virginia at Maryland, Texas at UCF, Louisville at Kentucky, and Ohio State at Washington.

Bounce Back

A couple of teams bounced back in week two in a big way. After taking a big wallop against Oklahoma, North Texas traded touchdowns with SMU in Dallas before falling 45-31. North Texas QB Daniel Meager passed for an astounding 601 yards. Meager had never passed for 200 yards in a game at North Texas.

After struggling against Arkansas State in its first game, Texas found its mark against TCU in the second half. The defense played well and Colt McCoy got untracked as the Horns beat the Frogs 34-13. The Frogs had the Horns down 10-0 at halftime on two McCoy interceptions. But, McCoy found his receivers and his legs to rally Texas past TCU who may be Texas’ second best college football team.

Predictions

I’m glad I don’t make money predicting these games. I had Michigan number two in my preseason poll. Well, they made me look dumb. The Wolverines should beat Notre Dame because they have a better defense (I think) and more offensive weapons (Hart and Manningham). However, Jimmy Claussen has had a start under his belt, and I doubt the Irish will try to run over Michigan. Maybe Coach Weis will run a spread attack to torch the Michigan defense. We know how that worked out for Appalachian State and Oregon.

On a day like today (9/11), we remember that football isn’t the most important thing. It was six years ago that our world changed forever. 9/11 serves as a new generation’s “where were you?” question. I remember where I was, and it didn’t involve football. Some things are just more important. I watched in horror as the twin towers fell while I was listening to the late Peter Jennings‘ coverage on ABC News. It was so surreal that Jennings didn’t immediately notice that the towers were falling. I later learned news that made the events even more personal. I friend and high school classmate told me that another classmate of ours (from Pakistan no less) was in the second towers. Fortunately, he made it out of the tower before the second plane hit the tower he was in. Unfortunately, another classmate of ours sister who was just two years behind us was a flight attendant on one of the planes. I saw her name scroll on the jumbo screen during the Super Bowl halftime performance by U2 that honored the victims of 9/11.

So, we remember. The victims. The police and firefighters who rushed to the scene to try to save lives. The NY Fire Department Chaplain who paused give last rites and lost his life. To those who saved thousands of lives by taking over United Flight 93 even though it meant the loss of theirs. To the thousands of soldiers who continue to serve to keep all Americans safe. To all service personal who serve every day putting their life in harms way. To the young lady I went to high school with and her family. To the families who all perished. I wanna cry every time I see another story. God bless them all.

Todd

What do I see after week one in College Football? Football is still a team sport. If you don’t believe me, just ask Michigan or Texas. I don’t have to tell you by now that Michigan lost their game with Appalachian State. Texas, struggled to get by at home against Arkansas State, a “powerhouse” one Fort Worth TV sports reporter called them with sarcasm. Appalachian State is the two time defending Division I-AA Champs (the NCAA now calls it the Championship Division because they play playoffs to determine the national champions). Arkansas State was a Sun Belt Conference Champs two years ago, and beat last year’s champs, Troy, on the road. Neither, however, would be considered teams who belong at the top in the BCS conferences.

The fact is when we are in the offseason, and everyone is debating who signed the best recruiting class, these two teams aren’t mentioned because there isn’t news of recruiting for either school. Why? Because they don’t sign “blue chip,” “five-star” recruits. Go ahead and get the talent. I hope they remember how to play football, avoid penalties, block for extra points, etc. These great recruits still have to perform, and execute the fundamentals. For example, DeShaun Jackson looked solid in Cal’s win against Tennessee. Yes, he is that good. His punt return was something that makes a legend.

We saw modest performances from the two top rated recruits of last year, Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) and Joe McKnight (USC). McKnight even had a fumble. Do you remember those guys? Clausen shows up in a stretch hummer to announce he was going to be an Irish, and Joe McKnight broke every LSU fan’s heart when he chose USC over them. I remember Cedar Hill’s (Texas) William Cole make his announcement on a local TV in an almost gaudy like fashion when chose Oklahoma State. As far as I know, Cole had no significant stats Saturday against Georgia.

At the end of the day, these guys need the other 10 on the field. And, they have to execute the fundamentals before they can put on the show. Hype doesn’t win games, teams do. And, sometimes you never know who will be a star when the lights are turned on. Does anyone remember a high school fullback from Waco named LaDainian Tomlinson? He did alright didn’t he?

Guys like Rich Rodriguez has made a living recruiting guys like these, and he has built a pretty good program with a system that fits these guys at West Virginia. These days, the way the Appalachian and Boise States have leveled the playing field to compete with the Michigans have been to run unorthodox offenses that take advantage of defensive vulnerabilities and score points. Remember Florida? They take advantage of speed, spread the field and throw the defense off balance. It’s happening all over the country, but it has yet to happen in the NFL where the talent is so deep and players study all the time. Now, more than ever, the BCS teams have to come to play when they step on the field with Arkansas State, Boise State, Appalachian State, or whomever they might be playing.

The more the playing field becomes leveled, the more there is a need for a playoffs. And, the way Appalachian State played on Saturday, maybe there is a need for a winner takes all between the two Division I champs.

Check out my top ten here.

. . . .College Football teams name their starting QBs.

It has been happening this week. Several teams have named their starting QB for the first game. Each team, I’m sure, reserves the right to make a change. Maybe the biggest announcement is at Oklahoma. OU named redshirt Freshman Sam Bradford its starting QB. OU is one of many teams who have to replace a QB. Another team is TCU. The Frogs announced this week that redshirt Freshman Andy Dalton would get the start against Baylor.
Dalton beat out Sophomore Marcus Jackson who helped TCU beat Baylor last year after Jeff Ballard was unable to finish the game. Jackson has playing experience and some success. TCU coach Gary Patterson feels real good about both QBs. Patterson told Dale Hanson of WFAA TV that when the Frogs have won 10 games recently, that they have needed two QBs. Jackson should be ready. Tyler Donovan will start for Wisconsin. Donovan played when then Senior QB John Stocco was injured last year leading to the Badgers to two wins. His experience will be helpful at the beginning of the season.

Other new starters include Sam Keller at Nebraska and, maybe, Cody Hawkins at Colorado.

Well, if you are 59 years old, you have a shot. Have you seen the story about 59 year old Mike Flynt who made the football team at NAIA Sul Ross State? I guess you never know what might happen.

continued. . . . . .

4. Texas– The Longhorns are poised for another Big 12 Title. QB Colt McCoy will be a Sophomore, and it looks like he will be great for Texas. He had a sensational Freshman season, and he looks to not only be a year wiser, but bigger as well. Reports from Austin are that he bulked up. This is necessary if Texas is going to keep him healthy all year. They also return a good assortment on defense including 4 of 7 up front. That helps give the secondary time to jell before September 29 against Kansas State. The OL also has to get better, but that has never been a problem for any Texas team. Watch out for the November 3 game at Oklahoma State. Texas always struggles to win in Stillwater.

3. West Virginia– Well, I see so much returning for this West Virginia team, including their head coach. Same system, same coaches. Same destruction of opponents. West Virginia graded second on my scale with Wisconsin, but I put them ahead of Louisiville because they return their system, and their coaches. WVU returns what they need to remain a contender until the new starters begin to jell. Their pass defense needs to be better if they are going to win the Big East outright and make it to the BCS Title game. They return most of their secondary, and maybe they will be better than 109th in the nation. If the defense is better against the pass, this might make for a great WVU team. The Mountaineers play 4 of their first 6 on the road, and then, if they win those, they will at Rutgers on October 27 and at home against Louisville November 8 to play for the Big East Title. Then, if they want to compete for the National Title, Pat White needs to be a lot better at passing the ball.

2. Michigan– Rarely have I seen a team return so much fire power on offense. Michigan has an All-American RB, a rocket-armed QB, and two big, fast, Junior WRs. They return most of their OL too. They don’t return as much on defense, but they have someone back in each of the key areas: DT, LB, CB, and FS. And, Michigan never lacks the talent to fill in those other spots. Two of the projected starters at LB are Seniors. The point is, they will have what they need to put a good defense on the field. This reminds me of Ohio State’s defense last year which was suppose to be in a rebuilding year. They did pretty well. Of course, the Michigan offense can control the game with RB Michael Hart. This Michigan team is poised to make another run at the Big Ten Title and a National Championship.

1. USC– The Trojans are number one hands down. They return an incredible 10 players on defense! In the first couple of games, their defense may score as much as their offense. Also, they graded out highest in my, ahem, scientific grading system. They were tied with Louisiville, but I think USC is the tops because they have so much defense returning and no coaching change. When USC goes to Nebraska, that’s the game to watch on September 15. This is the game when those that will step it up on offense will emerge as go-to players. This is what USC needs too. They return 6 on offense including QB John David Booty, but they lack a proven running game and Dwayne Jarrett is gone to the NFL.. That makes for a tough stretch early until they figure those things out. Look for freshman Joe McKnight to help at RB, and maybe another freshmen to emerge at WR. If they can get those things solved, then USC will be playing for the National Title in January. But, who knew?

continued. . . . . .

8. Virginia Tech– Tech returns 16 starters which is a good start to the 2007 season. RB Brandon Ore was really coming into his own last year and QB Sean Glennon is back with another year under his belt. The offense needs to improve their rankings, but the defense returns 8 starters from its number 1 ranked defense. The Hokies will also be playing with emotion and focus, for something other than themselves. It was last Spring when a student entered a dorm and several classrooms shooting and killing 32 people. The extra emotion and incentive to play for a community who is still trying to heal might be the momentum they need to shock LSU on September 8, win the ACC, and play for a National Title.

7. LSU-- If Matt Flynn plays like he did in the Peach Bowl two seasons ago, LSU may be dancing into the Sugar Bowl for a shot at the National Title. LSU was cursed with a tough schedule last year, but have Florida, South Carolina, Aburn and Arkansas all at home. The most dangerous game for them will be at Kentucky on October 13. Their biggest game of the year will come in week two when they host Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech should be really good, and they could shock everyone if Flynn isn’t on his game. Playing the game at Baton Rouge should help. This is the most important game for the Tigers because it is so early (September 8), and they have to win it keep their hope of a National Title game alive. LSU also needs to solve its running game to take pressure off of Flynn.

6. Wisconsin–The Badgers return 16 starters including the bulk of that outstanding running game. They have to replace the QB, but they seem to have capable replacements who will have a couple of Senior WR’s work with. They return a nice balance on defense along with both CB’s which is significant early in the year. They should everything going by the time they roll in to Happy Valley October 13. This Wisconsin team could make a run at the Big 12 Title.

5. Louisville– As I said earlier, the Cardinals graded out tied with USC in my (ahem) “Scientific” grading. But, they have a new coach. If Coach Kragthorpe is smart, he will tweak the offense and let his stars do the rest. Brian Brohm may be the best QB in next year’s NFL draft. Then, he should go to work on improving the defense, especially the pass defense. They return enough on defense, including the LBs, to keep shootouts from happening with most opponents. If I were Bobby Petrino, I would want a do-over.