Editor’s note: I came across this post that I wrote in December of 2006 on my Toddler Top 10 site. I have since imported all of those posts into CollegeFootballTopTen.com v. 2.0 with the help of WordPress. Apparently, I never published the post. I guess I wasn’t quite ready to publish it. I think it is interesting to read this just a little over a year later. The post is about the hiring of Todd Dodge at the University of North Texas. Dodge certainly struggled in his first year, however a couple of other Sun Belt teams defeated teams from BCS conferences. Also, the two teams that I compared North Texas to, Nebraska and Texas A & M have since hired new coaches firing the successors of Frank Solich and R. C. Slocum. (April 16, 2008)

Original Post

A few weeks ago I was ready to write about how I thought the firing of Darrel Dickey at The University of North Texas was wrong. I was upset because Dickey led UNT to four Sun Belt Conferences Championships and four trips to the Sun Belt Conference’s New Orleans Bowl in a conference where member football teams do not have anyone following their recruiting news because their is nothing to follow. Members of the Sun Belt are terribly underfinanced, underbudgeted, under–you name it. They have to play nonconference schedules against top teams from the Big 12, SEC, and whoever else they can find to get the money to sustain their programs. Therefore, when many of those teams get to conference play, they usually have a losing record. Hence, many times the winner of the Sun Belt had a 6-5 record in years past. You see, it’s tough when your in the Sun Belt conference.

It would have been easier to criticize the decision if UNT would have made a dumb hiring move. But they didn’t. I see in this much of what I saw when Nebraska fired Frank Solich and Texas A&M fired R. C. Slocum. These programs fired what seemed to be good men who cared about their players and won games. Unfortunately, when the championships stopped coming, they were fired. However, those schools made good moves in who they hired to replace those men. It has worked out really well. Well I think that UNT did the same thing. They hired High School coach Todd Dodge. Todd Dodge has been the coach at Southlake Carroll High School in Southlake, TX. What a job he has done. In the coming three to four years you will be hearing some names of his former players. In fact, you already have. Chase Daniel was the QB for Missouri this year and had a memorable first year as a starter.

With the recent success of former high school coaches in Division I A college football, it is possible that Dodge can do the job. Houston head coach Art Briles and Arkansas Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn have been successful this year. Houston won the Conference USA Championship. Arkansas won the SEC West Title with Malzahn helping make Darren McFadden a surprising 2nd for the Heisman Trophy by using McFadden at different positions including QB in the much publicized “Wildcat” formation. Briles, just a few years ago was coaching at Sephenville High School in Texas, and Malzahn was the head coach for the Springdale High School Bulldogs, AR, just one year ago.

Dodge might be better than both. It really is not a surprise that he has this opportunity. Dodge coached at a High School program that has more emphasis and pressure than most college football programs from the Division I-AA level down, and some at the Division I A level. Before he came to Southlake, the Dragons were already pretty good. They won in the 80′s and 90′s with a run oriented option attack. He changed how they played offense and continued the tradition of winning. He started using the spread offense. Now, one can go watch a high school football game in Texas, and chances are one of the two teams will be running an offense that is similar to Dodges’ at Southlake. The Dragons have won two Mythological National Titles. Dodge knows how to bring excitement and honor to a program.

Dodge’s success at UNT will not only benefit the Mean Green. It can benefit the entire Sun Belt Conference. If he is successful, not just in conference play but outside of it as well, then the other programs will have to keep up. The level of football being played in the Sun Belt will eventually rise. Then, someone might be talking about a Sun Belt team crashing the BCS Party someday. Sounds crazy? It might be. However, with the help of a high school football coach who coaches a team which has a mythological creature (the Dragons) for a mascot and two Mythological High School National Championships, something that seems so, well, mythological, just might become very non-mythological.

Instead of posting a final poll before bowl season, I am going to lay out my playoffs scenario. I believe that the only way to decide clearly who the champions are, there needs to be a playoff. I am not going to address the arguments here, only lay out my playoffs. Therefore, we shall proceed.

The playoffs have 16 teams. This should ensure that the teams who should have a shot at the national title actually is in the hunt. We will give the bids to a combination of teams who deserve a shot and those who have earned a shot. Therefore, the conference champions of the BCS Bowl conferences will receive automatic bids. The other automatic bids will be awarded to the two highest ranked conference champions from the remaining conferences and the independents. Here are our automatic bids.

Ohio State (Big Ten)
Florida (Southeastern)
Oklahoma (Big 12)
USC (Pac 10)
Louisville (Big East)
Wake Forest (ACC)
Notre Dame (Independent)
Boise State (Western Athletic Conference)

The remaining at-large bids will belong to the highest ranked teams remaining. Just like the NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament, seeds will be set based on the selection committee’s ranking which should follow one of the polls, most likely the Associated Press.

The at-large bids belong to:

Michigan (Big Ten)
LSU (SEC)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)
Auburn (SEC)
Arkansas (SEC)
West Virginia (Big East)
Virginia Tech (ACC)
Rutgers (Big East)

Our seeds are as follows.

1) Ohio State
2) Florida
3) Michigan
4) LSU
5) Louisville
6) Wisconsin
7) Oklahoma
8) USC
9) Boise State
10) Auburn
11) Notre Dame
12) Arkansas
13) West Virginia
14) Virginia Tech
15) Wake Forest
16) Rutgers

First rounds to be played on the campus of the higher seed.

1) Ohio State vs. 16) Rutgers
2) Florida vs. 15) Wake Forest
3) Michigan vs. 14) Virginia Tech
4) LSU vs. 13) West Virginia
5) Louisville vs. 12) Arkansas
6) Wisconsin vs. 11) Notre Dame
7) Oklahoma vs. 10) Auburn
8) USC vs. 9) Boise State

We will address other issues during the next post.

I missed a week, and a few things have happened. So, now I am trying to catch up. Here goes.

1. Ohio State–The Buckeyes await whomever the BCS sends their way after surviving the Michigan game in Columbus.
2. USC–The Trojans took out Notre Dame at home, and they have looked good since the loss to Oregon State.
3. Florida–The Gators beat rival Florida State and have Arkansas in the SEC Title Game.
4. Michigan–The Wolverines should not fall far after their gutsy showing at Ohio State. They showed that they would be a tough playoff team.
5. LSU–The Tigers are playing their best ball, and I am sure they would like to have back Auburn and Florida. LSU beat a good Arkansas team in Little Rock Saturday. They await the bowl selections.
6. Wisconsin–The Badgers are heading to the Capital One Bowl, and they have a 11-1 record to show for it.
7. Arkansas–The Razorbacks may have lost to a more talented team in LSU, but they get to play in Atlanta and could be the SEC Champs. Much of this can be attributed to one of the best backs in the country in Darren McFadden and his back up Felix Jones. When Arkansas can throw the ball, they are dangerous.
8. Louisville–The Cardinals still have a shot at a BCS Bowl. If they beat UConn and Rutgers loses at West Virginia, Louisville will be Big East Champions.
9. Oklahoma–The Sooners were not even on my radar two weeks ago, but my how things change. They won out, and Texas lost two. Now, the Sooners are headed to the Big 12 Title Game. They have to play a tough Nebraska team.
10. Boise State–The Broncos went 12-0 with new coach. Undefeated in any conference where the teams play each other every year and rivalries are established is very difficult to do. The Broncos have earned a spot in the BCS, and it remains to be seen if they will take advantage of it like Utah did two years ago.

Games to Watch

Arkansas vs. Florida–The Gators are hoping for a Bruin miracle, but they better be ready for Arkansas. The Razorback ground game is at its best, scorching LSU for over 300 yards. The Hogs just need to be able to complete a few passes (like more than three) to close out the best Razorback season since 1988 with a birth in the BCS.
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska–Gone are the days of Switzer and Osborne. These are new days, and the option has left each program. Oklahoma gets my vote of Resilient Team of the Year. Nebraska finished the way people thought they would.
Rutgers vs. West Virginia–This one is for the Big East’s representative to the BCS. Rutgers goes if it wins. If the Mountaineers win, it’s Louisville. There should be electricity in Morgantown, WV Saturday Night.

The obvious choice here is Michigan at Ohio State. But there are three other games involving ranked teams. My advice is to order a couple of large pizzas, have some soda ready, and maybe some chicken wings.

Michigan vs. Ohio State–So many storylines are involved in this one. Both teams have perfect records, the Big Ten Title is at stake, these two teams have one of the biggest rivalries in college football, Jim Tressel has had a lot of success against Michigan’s Lloyd Carr, there are four or five legitimate Heisman candidates between the two teams including Ohio State QB Troy Smith, and, oh yeah, the winner gets a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. Any questions?

California vs. USC–The Pac 10 Championship is at stake in LA, and if USC wins it still has a chance to go to the BCS National Championship Game.

Maryland vs. Boston College–Maryland continues its march toward the ACC Title Game, but they have to win at Boston College which is tough to do. A win by Boston College can make things interesting in the Atlantic Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest–The Demon Deacons have to win to set up a showdown with Maryland next week for the Atlantic Division Title in the ACC. Both Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are hot and this should make for some good football in November.

1. Ohio State–The new “Game of the Century” is this week when the Buckeyes host the Michigan Wolverines. The two teams have been screaming toward each other on a collision course since Michigan blasted Notre Dame earlier this season.
2. Michigan–See above.
3. Florida–The Gators have passed another major test. Saturday they beat the shadow of Steve Spurier. There is that one loss at Auburn.
4. USC–The Trojans played really well Saturday, and their loss to Oregon State may have been the wake up call that Pete Carroll’s team needed.
5. Arkansas–The Hogs dominated Tennessee Saturday. Darren McFadden was, in fact, unstoppable. The Vols had no answers for him and the rest of the Razorbacks. One more win for the Hogs, and they play in Atlanta for the SEC Title.
6. West Virginia–The Mountaineers still have a chance to win the Big East. Rutgers has to come to Morgantown.
7. Notre Dame–The Irish have been winning, and they stay alive in their quest for a BCS Bowl.
8. LSU–The Tigers won’t go away. They took care of business beating Alabama on Saturday. QB JaMarcus Russell was 18 for 21 passing against the Crimson Tide.
9. Rutgers–It is hard to ignore what the Scarlet Knights did to Louisville Thursday night. This is truly a magical season for Rutgers, but they have to go to Morgantown, WV in three weeks.
10. Wake Forest–The “Fighting Baptists” have had an impressive run in the ACC. They knocked off then ranked Boston College and have beaten everybody else except Clemson. They just seem to get better. Anyone who can beat a Bobby Bowden team in Tallahassee 30-0 is becoming a good football team.

Teams that Are Close

Wisconsin–The Badgers are going to be 11-1 when they beat Buffalo Saturday. That is an amazing feat in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, they are going to accomplish that without beating a single ranked team.
Texas–The Longhorns are still a good team. QB Colt McCoy suffered an injury in the first quarter. He should probably return by the A&M game or the Big 12 Title game.
Louisville–The Cardinals still have a lot to play for. If they win out and West Virginia beats Rutgers, they can tie for the Big East Title.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas–The Vols come to Fayetteville, and so does ESPN Gameday! It doesn’t get any better for Hog fans. The Razorbacks need to win 2 of their last 3 to go to the SEC Title Game. Two of those games are against ranked teams.

Louisville vs. Rutgers–Now we get to see how good Rutgers is. The Cardinals visit Rutgers, and both teams are undefeated with the Big East Title at stake.

Oregon vs. USC–Did the Trojans snap out of it? We find out when the Ducks come quacking, um, calling.

The BCS is in full swing, and November is crunch time for teams trying to make a run toward a BCS Bowl. November marks the end of conference play where crucial games take place. Each point is important in placing teams in the BCS rankings.

1. Ohio State–Near-upset notwithstanding.
2. Michigan–The Wolverines also struggled. Maybe both teams are anticipating November 18th like a child on Christmas Eve. One more week, and one more opponent to overcome for these two before the big November 18 matchup.
3. Texas–West Virginia loses, and Texas wins big. This causes the Longhorns to move up.
4. Louisville–The Cardinals had an impressive win at home against the Mountaineers. Louisville can’t rest though, they go to undefeated Rutgers.
5. Auburn–The only thing the Tigers haven’t done this season is win the SEC West. They have, however, beaten SEC East Champs Florida.
6. Florida–The Gators struggled to beat Vandy, but they won a trip to Atlanta and the SEC Championship game when LSU beat Tennessee with 9 seconds to play.
7. California–The Bears keep on winning. They have shaken off the bad start at Tennessee to become the favorite for the Pac 10 Championship.
8. West Virginia–Everyone knows what they are going to do, and so far, no one has stopped it. West Virginia stopped themselves Thursday night at Louisville.
9. USC–The Trojans got back on track against a horrid Stanford team.
10. Arkansas–The Razorbacks are going Hog wild. They have a big home game against Tennessee Saturday night. The Hogs held on at South Carolina, and their improbable SEC West Title hopes continue.

Teams that Are Close

LSU–The Tigers are the best 2 loss team in the country. No one has a tougher schedule. LSU faces four (count them, 4!) top 12 teams on the road this year. The Tigers finally got a victory against one of those on Saturday, Tennessee.
Tennessee–The Vols are a good team who have a chance to re-establish itself at Arkansas Saturday.
Notre Dame–The Irish continue to win. Notre Dame is keeping alive its return to a BCS Bowl.

West Virginia vs. Louisville–Many think that this is for the Big East title, but Rutgers is also undefeated. However, both teams have been rolling, and Louisville should have the toughest defense West Virginia has seen this season.

LSU vs. Tennessee–LSU has yet to win one of these tough road games this year. The Vols are coming off a big win at South Carolina. LSU’s defense could present problems for Tennessee’s offense.

Boston College vs. Wake Forest–We all know that Doug Flutie is excited about Boston College. How about those Demon Deacons? Their only loss is to ranked Clemson. BC has won all their games against ranked teams.

Texas A & M vs. Oklahoma–OU may have just become a better team without Adrian Peterson. The defense has finally gotten better, and it has helped take the burden off of the offense. The Aggies are playing well. They have road wins in the last two games. The winner of this game keeps pace with Texas.

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. West Virginia
4. Texas
5. Louisville
6. Tennessee
7. Auburn
8. Florida
9. California
10. USC

Teams that Are Close

Arkansas–The Razorbacks go to South Carolina this week. It’s a good road test for the Hogs.
LSU–Which LSU team will show up at Tennessee Saturday. The team who lost to Florida and Auburn, or the team who has manhandled everyone else. LSU’s schedule is brutal this year with four Top 15 teams on the road.
Notre Dame–The Irish had a good win last week over Navy. The Irish is a good team that keeps on winning. Their remaining schedule includes the other two service academies, a bad North Carolina team, and USC.

I am departing from the normal routine this morning to talk about something that leaves me puzzled, The BCS Rankings. How does Rutgers end up ahead of Arkansas in the BCS Rankings? I mean no disrespect to a team who is having its best season in decades, but Rutgers has yet to show the same firepower against the kind of teams that Arkansas has. The Razorbacks have played against two Top 10 opponents and is undefeated in the rugged SEC. They beat Auburn (no. 6) at Auburn when Auburn was ranked number 2!

Rutgers does have two ranked opponents (both in the Top 10) left on their schedule, while Arkansas still has two more. Every week in the SEC, somebody plays a ranked team close. Ole Miss did it Saturday against Auburn. Arkansas clobbered that same Ole Miss team a couple of weeks ago. Don’t count on easy victories over Kentucky or Vanderbilt either. Kentucky just trailed 12-7 at the half at Florida before losing 26-7. Vandy has scared or beaten its share of teams too including a victory over then-ranked Georgia in Athens on October 14.

Why, then, is Rutgers ranked ahead of the Hogs? In the BCS Ranking, while the “human” rankings have Rutgers 14th or 15th, the “computer” has Rutgers ranked 8th. Are you kiddin’ me? That puts Rutgers ahead of Texas, conference rivals West Virginia and Louisville, and finally, Tennessee. Wow. Now listen to this. That “computer” has Florida ranked 4th. That’s great for an SEC team. Who did Florida lose to? Oh yeah, it was at Auburn. Where are they ranked in the “computer?” Uh, Auburn is ranked 7th, three spots behind the team whom they beat. Huh?? Who did Auburn lose to? Arkansas. Where are they ranked? The Hogs are ranked 14th in that “computer” poll. That is seven spots behind the team they beat on the road.

What does all this mean? It means a computer computes based on certain variables, and because 18 to 22 year old kids play the game on Saturday (or Thursday, Friday, or Sunday), their are too many variables for a computer program to consider. And, it looks as if some variables are left out, at least for some teams. Generally, you can tell if a team is good by which teams they beat. But, their is always the possibility of upsets, teams not playing the way they should, the rigors of conference play where teams play each other every year, fierce rivalries, etc. But I have to admit, I am not sure how the computers computed an 8th ranked Rutgers.

What I really want to say is this. Let’s get rid of the BCS system and settle it on the field. I want NCAA College Football Division I-A Playoffs. It is the only proven, best way to settle who is number 1. I have heard, all of the arguments. However, I simply point to NCAA College Football Divisions I-AA, II and III . They do it, and have written the book on it. No more controversies because a “computer” cannot compute based on common sense. Put the winners of 8 conference championships in the pools with 4 or 8 at-large teams based on AP Rankings. Play first round games on campuses rewarding conference champions for their hard work. Then start playing semi-finals on neutral sites. I would say we do not include bowls in the playoffs, but we create a new kind of atmosphere much like the NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament. Then use the bowls for all teams who win 7 or more games. Then, the bowl environment returns to rewarding good teams who had good seasons.

About this BCS system, “Can Somebody Please Explain This to Me?”