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Do you want another nightmare scenario for the BcS mess?  Well it could happen.  It looks like the winner of the SEC is on a collision course with Texas, but stranger things have happened.

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Note:  Remember my reasons for updating every three weeks, even if some of you think I am really an idiot.

1.  Florida, 12-1
Alabama was number one in my poll, and Florida beat them in the SEC Championship Game and looked good doing it.  Florida has been on a tear after the loss to Ole Miss.  Tim Tebow has become a great leader, and he has lead this team to where it is now.

2.  Oklahoma, 12-1
There is no easy way to do this.  Oklahoma beat the number two team in my poll, Texas Tech, therefore, I will put them at number 2.  That being said, arguments can be made for both Texas and Oklahoma.  Texas, we know, beat Oklahoma on a neutral field the first weekend of October and only loss to Tech on the road on a TD pass with one second left on the clock.  Oklahoma destroyed Texas Tech, and, I might add, is not the same team it was in October.   They are running the ball better, and they have fixed some of their defensive holes.

3.  Texas, 11-1
See Above

4.  Alabama, 12-1
The Tide is a bruising team.  They will absolutely knock you silly on both sides of the ball.  They only had one slip this year.  Unfortunately, it was in their last game against Florida.  I really would love to see them play one of those great Big 12 South games.  Oh well, they play Utah in the Sugar Bowl.

5.  USC, 11-1
No one will know for sure how good USC is.  It was a bad Thursday night in Corvallis earlier this year, and if Oregon State had not have been so beat up by the end of the season, USC would have had somewhere other than the Rose Bowl to go play.

6.  Utah, 12-0

The Utes are not a flashy team.  They play good defense, and they are led on offense by a senior QB.  They make just enough plays on offense to win their games.  They run a spread offense, but it is a grind-it-out kind of blue collar offense.  They took care everyone, and then they rallied to knock off TCU before pulling away from BYU to get to that undefeated season.  They deserve what they get.

7.  Texas Tech, 11-1
This is, undoubtedly, the best season in Red Raider history.  Mike Leach showed me something as he worked to improve his running game and his defense to get his team to this special place.  In most years, 11-1 would be good enough for a BCS Bowl.  A blowout loss to Oklahoma did not help their case.

8.  Penn State, 11-1
Joe Pa may have turned his best performance this year.  He just keeps winning games.  His offense was off- the-chart good this year, and his defense was its usual good self.  One loss to an improving Iowa team in Iowa City took them out of the national title hunt.

9.  TCU, 10-2
I just wasn’t sure if the Frogs were a top ten team.  However, after the season was over, I realized they were just a better offense away from being BCS buster material.  The Frog offense was good against most teams, but when they played teams with good defenses (Oklahoma, Utah), they just couldn’t generate enough points.  TCU finished number 2 in the country in total defense, and if you don’t think they were good, give Bob Stoops a call.  The Sooners scored over 700 points this year, but they only scored 35 on the Frogs with 21 of those coming in the first quarter.  That is 19 points below the Sooners’ average.  TCU is good.

10.  Boise State, 12-0
Unfortunately, the Broncos only played one team who was ranked this year making it hard to know how good they really are.  It’s not their fault, but it hurts their credibility.  They get a chance to prove it in the Poinsettia Bowl against TCU.  Many are calling it one of the best match-ups in the bowl season.  Nevetheless, it is really hard to go undefeated in 12 games in spit of who is on your schedule.

Note:  Remember my reasons for updating every three weeks, even if some of you think I am really an idiot.

1.  Alabama, 11-0
The Crimson Tide keep winning, but they are starting to look a little less intimidating.  They have some business to take care of in the “Iron Bowl.”  Then, they have to beat Florida, the hottest team in the country, in the SEC Championship Game.  Defeat Arkansas State 35-0, at LSU 27-21 OT, Mississippi State 32-7.

2.  Texas Tech, 10-0
The Red Raiders have played some of the most exciting football in the past three weeks beating routing Kansas and Oklahoma State slipping past Texas 39-33.  The Raiders go to Norman to play the Sooners and then get Baylor at home to finish the season.

3.  Florida, 9-1
Fans can argue that Texas looks better on paper when considering the results, but no one is hotter than Florida is now.  The Gators survived the early part of their schedule, and then they were promptly upset by Houston Nutt’s Ole Miss Rebels.  Then, the Gators regrouped and have not looked back since.  The Gators won at Georgia (49-10) and Vandy (42-14) and annihilated South Carolina 56-6.

4.  Texas, 10-1
The Longhorns may be the victim of circumstances when it is all over.  The Horns beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and their only loss is on the road in a very close game to Texas Tech.  But, when the dust settles, will Oklahoma get the nod to play in the Big 12 Championship Game?  It could happen.  What do you do with three teams with one loss, to each other, tied for first?  The Horns lost at Texas Tech 39-33, won over Baylor 45-21 and at Kansas 35-7.

5.  Oklahoma, 9-1
The Sooners have rebounded from the October loss to the Longhorns, and they are looking to exact a little revenge on Texas Tech who beat them last year and further completecate the Big 12 South.  However, even if they beat the Raiders, they have to beat a very salty Oklahoma State team in Stillwater.  The Sooners won at Kansas State (58-35), beat Nebraska 62-28, and at Texas A & M 66-28.

6.  USC, 9-1
The Trojans got their revenge on Stanford last week in Palo Alto pulling away for the 45-23 win.  The Trojans beat Washington 56-0, Cal 17-3 and at Stanford (45-23).  Up next is Notre Dame and UCLA.  Unfortunately, USC may go 11-1 and not make the Rose Bowl.  Oregon State controls its own destiny there.

7.  Utah, 11-0
I don’t know what to say about the Running Utes.  They just keep winning.  They aren’t flashy, their defense leads the way and they are able to win the game when trailing.  The Utes beat New Mexico and TCU 13-10 and ripped San Diego State 63-14.  The next game is what locals call the “Holy War.”  It’s the yearly rival with BYU, and it is a home game for Utah.  These kind of games transcend records, so Utah will be in for a tough, close game.  If they win this game, they will go to a BCS Bowl.

8.  Penn State, 10-1
The Nittany Lions is a feel good story, but they saved everyone a lot of Big Ten heartache when they lost at Iowa a couple of weeks ago.  They are still a go for the Rose Bowl.  How do you like that match up, Penn State versus Oregon State, a rematch?  The Lions won at Ohio State  (13-6), lost at Iowa (24-23) and beat Indiana (34-7).  Up next, Michigan State.

9.  Oklahoma State, 9-2
What can you say about the Cowboys?  They have been impressive all year.  Yes they loss two games, but those games were on the road against teams that were ranked number 1 and number 2 when they played them.  OSU had its own gauntlet to run, and they managed beat Missouri on the road.  What’s more, every top 5 team they have played has been on the road.  The next on will be in Stillwater.  After a week off, they get cross state rival Oklahoma.  The Cowboys beat Iowa State (59-17), loss to Texas Tech (56-20) and beat Colorado (30-17).

10.  Missouri
The Tigers had dropped out in my last poll because they had dropped two straight games.  But give them credit, they are pretty good.  One of those losses was at Texas in Austin.  The Tigers take care of business, and their offense is just so explosive.  They get the unfortunate task of facing whoever survives the Big 12 South in the Big 12 Championship Game.  Good luck.  The Tiges won at Baylor (31-28), beat Kansas State (41-24) and won at Iowas State (52-20).  Next up, the “Border War” against Kansas on November 29th.

Falling

Penn State (but not out)
Georgia

Rising

Utah
Oklahoma State

The Networks billed Saturday as “Revenge Saturday” because several teams had a chance to evenge losses from last year.  But no one seems to be shining briter than Florida right now.  It seems like everyone that plays them is turning out to be Gaitor Bait.  Since losing to Ole Miss at home in September, Florida has won 38-7 (Arkansas), 51-21 (LSU), 63-5 (Kentucky), 49-10 (Georgia), 42-14 (Vanderbilt), and 56-6 (South Carolina).  Is there anyone in the country hotter than the Gators right now.  The defense is only giving up an average of 10.5 points a game during that stretch while the offense is scoring 49.8333 per game.

Alabama continues to roll setting up a show down in the SEC Title game for the right to play the Big 12 South winner.  Alabama took care of business against Mississppi State.  The Tide isn’t flash.  The just control the clock running the ball, play great defense led by a mamoth Defensive Tackle in the middle and do a great job with special teams.

Next week is a big showdown in Norman, OK between Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma last year, so OU will be shooting for revenge.  If OU gets Texas Tech, that puts the Big 12 South in to a three way tie.  The Sooners will be tied with Texas Tech and Texas.  How will this mess get straigthened out?  Oklahoma State will beat Oklahoma in Stillwater the following week, sending Texas Tech to the Big 12 Title game.  If Tech knocks off Mizzou there, they will play the winner of Alabama and Florida in the BCS Championship Game.  It should be fun to watch.

Utah rolled over San Diego State setting up a showdown with BYU this week in the traditional “Holy War.”  If Utah wins that game in Salt Lake City (Utah plays both TCU and BYU at home this year), then the Utes should be a lock to make a BCS Bowl.  It would be a nice prize for the Mountain West Conference as they were spectacular in out of conference play, especially against the Pac 10.

Note: I just want to reiterate my reasoning for updating every 3 weeks.  I read on a message board this week about my doing so as being kind of strange.  That’s fine, maybe I am strange.  Look back at the original post which I will link to on every CFTT Top Ten hereafter.  I think parity, for the most part, has arrived in college football, therefore, I want to see teams play out a few weeks before updating.  Again, at the least, I’ll be kown as “the guy who updates his poll every three weeks.”

1.  Oklahoma, 5-0
The Sooners continue to prove their worth unlike anyone else in the country.  They have not had a close game including road blow outs against Washington (before Locker was injured) and now Baylor.  The even handled TCU at home by 25 points.  Sam Bradford rises in the Heisman Trophy race each week.  This week, they get their toughest test by far, Texas in the Red River Shootout (I mean Rivalry).

2.  Alabama, 6-0
Thus far, the most impressive team because they have knocked off two teams ranked in the top ten, and they won fairly handily.  If you throw out the Georgia game where they gave up 30 points to Matthew Stafford and Co., the defense has only given up 9 points per game.  Their offensive and defensive lines may be the best in the country.  Sure, they struggled with Kentucky, but good teams will struggle in at least one game (usually more), especially after an emotional win against Georgia.  Oh yeah, Kentucky is pretty good.

3.  Missouri, 5-0
The Tigers dominated Nebraska, on the road.  Now, I know the Cornhuskers aren’t quite a top 25 team, but it was still impressive.  Missouri’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest just yet, but their offense is humming.  They have only played one game outside of Missouri, and Texas awaits them in Austin on October 18th.  Take out the Illinois game, and the Mizzou defense has only allowed 14.5 points per game.

4.  LSU, 4-0
The Bengal Tigers should be 5-0, but Hurricane Ike forced the Troy game to be moved to November.  So far, the Tigers have had to revamp their offense with their defense leading the charge.  The last couple of games, it seems that the LSU offense has found an identity.  It seems as if Jarrett Lee is the QB of choice.  After a disasterous start against Auburn, Lee found his poise and threw some nice passes down field giving LSU a deep threat to complement their run attack.  Their defense, however, has uncharacteristically given up 20 plus points the last two games against Auburn and Mississippi State, two teams not known to be great offenses.

5.  Texas, 5-0
The Horns are giving up just 11.4 points per game, and they have played some offenses who have exploded for big scores this year (Rice, UTEP).  Many wondered how they would do on the road against Colorado, but their was appraently nothing to worry about.  They buried Buff in their own stadium setting up a huge game against number one ranked Oklahoma.  Their offense is really playing well, and their defense has been surprising excellent under first year coordinator Will Muschamp.

6.  Penn State, 6-0
The Nitany Lions have been almost as impressive as Alabama.  They beaten everyone handily with their only struggle on the road against Purdue.  The Lions have already played tow road games which gives them early season tests that should be good for the stretch run against Wisconsin (this week) and Ohio State (10/25).  They are the team to beat in the Big Ten.

7.  USC, 3-1
The Trojans have dominated everyone except Oregon State who should prove to be pretty good when the years done.  They don’t have a single ranked team left on their schedule as it is now.  How good are the Trojans, we probably won’t know until the bowl season.  They need a game against a Big 12 or SEC team.

8.  Texas Tech, 5-0
For the first time this year I have the Red Raiders in my top ten.  There are some stats that are standing out that lets me believe this a legitimate top ten team.  First, defense.  They are giving up just 18.4 points per game which is tough considering the type of offense they run.  Second, they are averaging 144.4 yards rushing per game.  That is something that was missing last year, and it looks like Mike Leach has found himself some backs.  Unfortunately for Tech, they are in the same conference with Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri.

9.  Georgia, 4-1
I would make too much out of Georgia getting beat by Alabama at home.  The Tide is very good, and so is Georgia.  Georgia was not ready in the first half against Alabama, but once they woke up, they made a very good rally and looked like they would keep their national championship aspirations alive.  Unfortuantely, Knowshon Moreno was hurt, and the score took him out of the game as they were coming from behind.  They still have a tough schedule.

10.  BYU, 5-0
BYU has only had one close game and that was at Washington before Jake Locker was injured.  Their offense is averaging 41.2 points per game and their defense is giving up just 11.6 points per game.  At Utah State Saturday, BYU put it in cruise control during the second half winning 34-14.  After hosting New Mexico Saturday, they have to come to Fort Worth on Thursday to play the Horned Frogs.  TCU made it close in Provo last year, and their defense has been dominant.

Rising

BYU
Alabama
Texas Tech
Penn State

Falling

South Florida
Oregon
Auburn

Here are the games to watch in Week 5.

Illinois vs. Penn State
If either team is for real, this game will show it.  Illinois is fresh off their Rose Bowl season has only one loss this season, to Missouri who seems to be pretty good.  Penn State has revolutionized their offense with their patented HD Spread Offense.  They are scoring points all over the place against lower tier teams.

Georgia vs. Alabama
The ‘Dawgs are scrapping to get back in to that top 2 after slipping from number 1.  A win against a team who, up until now, has looked really impressive, would go a long way toward getting back into that top 2.  A win at Georgia would serve notice that the Tide is back.

TCU vs. Oklahoma
With TCU’s debut into the top 25, this game has just become a battle between two ranked teams.  Oklahoma, of course, is ranked number 2.  When TCU went into Norman and upset Oklahoma in 1996 and 2005, those Sooner teams were not anywhere near the level of this Sooner team.  Sam Bradford is not a first year starter, and they just have so many weapons.  Not to be outdone, however, TCU counters with one of the nation’s stingiest defenses.  They also control the clock to the tune of 37 minutes and some change per game.  Sooner fans haven’t forgotten 2005, and neither have the coaches.

You really begin to figure things out after about 4 weeks of football.  What we are learning is that there seems to be a clear cut top tier of college football this year.  USC, Florida, Oklahoma and Georiga all have impressive wins over quality programs.  Georgia and Florida’s road gets a lot tougher as they have entered conference play in the SEC.  Oklahoma has to take on TCU this Saturday in Norman, and the Sooner fans recall rather well the upset the Frogs handed them in 2005.  The Frogs have won two in a row in Norman (1996 and 2005), but neither Sooner team was as good as this one.  That being said, this game is between two ranked teams as TCU debuted in the Top 25 at number 24 in the AP and 23 in the USA Today.

The Clash of Mother Nature’s Wrath

Trine vs. Defiance

This is Mike and Mike in the Morning’s pick for the small college football game of the week.  Quarterback Eric Watt passed for 265 yard and 3 touchdown passes as Trine whipped Defiance 42-14.  Trine broke open a close game in the fourth quarter with three touchdowns.

Looking Ahead

Alabama vs. Georgia
The Tide passed their first road test smoking pork on Saturday, and they get a crack at a bona fide top ten football team.  The ‘Dawgs rolled over Arizona State in prime time Saturday night, and now they are cranked up and ready for the SEC and the Eastern Division title.

Illinois vs. Penn State
Is Penn State for real?  Their offense has been off the chart scoring and gaining yards against mediocre teams.  Of course, the Illini haven’t had top level competition either.  This is a chance for one of these two teams to make a step toward filling the possible void left by Ohio State.

TCU vs. Oklahoma
As I mentioned above, the Frogs are now ranked so this makes this game a top 25 match-up.  The Frogs defense has been dominant holding teams to 183 yards per game, but the teams they have played aren’t anywhere near the caliber of the Sooners.  That being said, the Sooners haven’t seen a defense like TCU’s yet either.  And, TCU’s offense does what the coaches want it to do; they hold the ball for 37 minutes a game which is among the tops in the country.  They get smart quarterback play, they use multiple backs, they have good young receivers, and Aaron Brown has returned to the field giving the Frogs a big play threat at any time.

I received a few questions from John who is behind the Nebraska Sports Journal.  I contribute from for them once in a while.  If you have a chance, check them out.  They are Cornhusker nuts!  They are eager for the return of the “Blackshirts.”  I have to say, I was watching a replay of the Nebraska game today on my new cable TV from AT&T Uverse, and coach Bo Pelini looked good as a Husker coach.  He looked like he belonged on their sidelines.  I hope he is able to restore their proud tradition.

Now the questions.

1. What kind of season do you think A & M will have. They have a strong Husker connection from last year’s coaches and also Tim Cassidy.

2. How good is Alabama? Can they beat Georgia on a neutral field today or USC? Is Saban that good of a coach/ He has a pretty good track record with wins.

3. Who do you think will win the North in the Big 12? Is Missouri a lock?

4. What is your game of the week? It could have been Florida and Miami but Miami has gone down hill.

Here are my answers.

Games of the Week

Wake Forest vs. Mississippi–WF defeated Baylor soundly, and Ole Miss looked pretty good in Houston Nutt’s debut.  We have a game between a coach who turned down the Arkansas Razorback head football coach job and a coach who left the Arkansas football head coaching job.  This will be a good early test for the Rebels to see if they are bowl worthy, and it will be a chance for the Deacons to get a little redemption for the ACC.

Louisiana Tech vs. Kansas–A lot of people weren’t talking Jayhawks coming into the season.  Back to earthy they would say about KU.  Louisiana Tech beat a Mississippi State Bulldog team that went to a bowl game last year and most people think Sylvester Croom has headed in the right direction.  Is La Tech for real?  We’ll see if they can stop KU’s “Blue Collar” spread attack.

I just don’t know about A&M. Their fans have already written them off for the season, but I have to think they have enough talent to be at least 6-6. However, it seems Oklahoma State is much improved, but Baylor ought to be someone they can beat.

About Alabama. I saw a mature, seasoned team on the field with Clemson. They dominated the line on both sides of the ball. They appeared to have made the offense more manageable for John Parker Wilson (the QB), and they seem to have the horses to run the ball. Their TE was super Saturday, too. As far as them beating Georgia or USC, that is hard know just yet. Alabama has a lot of freshmen on the field. They will make a mistake (most likely) at some point. I think that they might be able to line it up and go toe to toe with both teams.

As far as the Big 12 North goes, I am not sure about Mizzou. The score in the Illinois game tells me that their defense is not there yet. They gave up 451 yards to a QB who was known for his feet. Either way, giving up that many yards to any QB says that your defense is not quite ready to win a championship. I need to evaluate Kansas and Nebraska before making my analysis. Also, Colorado.

Todd

I want to explain the philosophy of my poll in 2008.  I decide on this in the offseason after I saw so many upsets last year.  The top ten was like a yo yo, teams descending and ascending at rapid paces.  To start with, my preseason poll is where I think teams are now.  Some polls are merely a prediction of how the season will unfold.  And, I will admit that in the past, my preseason poll looked better at the end of the season than it did at the first of the season with regard to some of the teams.  Nevertheless, when it comes to my preseason poll, my intention is to rank who I think are the ten best teams as the season starts.  That being said, I am kind of the opinion of some who think there should not even be a preseason poll, but not completely.

So, with my poll, I am going to do something that I think is unique (it may not be, but I think it is).  I am going to update my poll every three weeks.  That’s right, I am not going to labor every single week on my poll.  This week’s upset might look like a good loss (if there is such a thing) in a couple of weeks.  For example, take Alabama.  They “upset” Clemson Saturday night in the Chick-fil-a Classic complete with commercial cows.  Alabama isn’t supposed to be a top ten teams the experts say.  Maybe they aren’t.  I surmise this, either Clemson isn’t as good as everyone thought they would be, or Alabama is going to make a significant improvement this year.  As I watched that game, my gut reaction was that they would win 10 games.  That was not me breaking down their schedule or anything, just a gut reaction, a hunch.  Take it for what it’s worth.  They had plenty of Freshmen on the field, but it was Clemson who was making all the rookie mistakes.  Alabama looked mature and seasoned.  Clemson may thump everyone else on their schedule making Alabama’s win look great.  Therefore, for my poll, I want a body of work to look at.  Each team in my poll gets three weeks.

This is my site and my poll, so I can do that.  Other sites, other polls, etc., they can do it every week.  This is my experiement.  At the least, I can be known as the guy who updates his poll every three weeks.  So, Clemson is safe in my poll. . . . . . for now.

Thursday night was the first night of college football, and where was I?  I was watching a high school football game!  I know, blasphemy.  A young man I knew was playing his first game as a varsity starter, and I went to watch him play.  While there, I took the time to practice note taking at a football game.  Subsequently, I wrote a summary of the game for Pegasus News.  You can check it out here.  I am a content partner, and now I am a part-time-for-big-pay (ha ha) writer for Peagasus News.  Here is my contribution page.  I met with the sports editor yesterday to be trained on their system, and I still made mistakes.  Thanks to Erin for being patient with me.

Three games stood out to me when I came home.  UTEP got drilled by Turner Gill’s Buffalo Bulls.  Turner Gill is a rising star in the coaching business, and I still wonder how he would have done given the job at Nebraska.  Gill is also a native of Fort Worth.  In fact, Gill graduated from Arlington Heights, the same team I watched play last night.  The play by Buffalo’s Drew Willy made wonder if I should have put him in my Top Ten Returning QB’s list instead of UTEP QB Trevor Vittatoe.  Next, Baylor lost its opener to Wake Forest.  Well, Wake is ranked number 23, and it may be a long season for Baylor.  If Art Briles turns around the program, it might take a few years.  Finally, NC State just got beat down by the SEC’s South Carolina.  The Gamecocks have a history of starting fast, and it looks like that might happen again this year.  There is another big game this weekend between the SEC and the ACC.  Saturday in the Chick-fil-a Classic, Alabama plays ACC favorite Clemson.  How will that play out?

I have been invited to write at the Nebraska Sports Journal.  I have accepted the invitation given to me by John.  I am not sure what I am going to write about, but it will be fun.  I let the CFTT readers know when I post an article at NSJ.

Tonight, our SMU Ponies take on Rice in Houston.  I will have a Rice preview for the Texas Tour later this evening.  The beginning of the June Jones Era begins at 7 PM.  Rice has an experienced QB and dangerous WR.  They can light up the scoreboard with ease.  Their defense, however, has not been real good.  These two teams might score 100.