February 4, 2012

Passing the Crystal Ball

With the FedEx BcS National Title Game being played Thursday night in floridaMiami between Oklahoma and Florida, I thought that I would offer the obligatory word or two about the upcoming game.  Since I am a college football blogger, I am supposed to talk about these things.  So, I thought I would title the post, “Passing the Crystal Ball.”  You know that piece of “hardware” they give to the winner of the so-called national championship oklahomagame.  Of course, the crystal trophy may be in short supply.

Oklahoma and Florida passed whatever test that voters use these days to choose numbers 1 and 2 in the BCS and get the rip to Miami to see who should be ranked number 1.  I seems that voters don’t really know who they are voting for or have any real standards.  Consider this from Dan Wetzel

“The BCS has no set rationale for how or why a school should be ranked – is it record, strength of schedule, whom it beat, whom it lost to, how it won, how it lost? The decision is up to each voter.”

Huh?  No real standards.  Surely that is how they do it in Division I basketball.  Well, the committee who selects the 64 team tournament has a lot of work to do, and they don’t rely on the voters.  Here is more from Wetzel.

“In contrast, the 10-member NCAA men’s basketball selection committee meets throughout the season to compare notes and stay on top of hot teams. It demands comprehensive scouting, sets common criteria and even asks committee members to get out and see teams in person. Then they all meet and hash it out.”

There you have it, it is simply a beauty pageant (check out my comments).  Sure, the computers have something to do with it, but when voters don’t have standards and a full time job, they simply don’t watch teams such as Utah play games until the bowl season.  They are relying on Sportscenter, Sports Illustrated, ABC or CBS for all of their input.  These great media outlets are going to “hype” the teams they cover.

Now that I have gotten beyond my rant, let’s move on to the game.  This game will feature two of the most explosive in modern history.  Florida runs a spread offense, but it is an Urban Meyer specific.  Now, Chris at Smart Football says it is not innovative because he employs concepts and elements that existed before Meyer started using them.  That is true, but the

Big 12 Football Championship

meshing together of the concepts and the extreme flexibility of Meyer’s offense makes it explosive.  He has merged a myriad of spread concepts making his offense difficult to defend, particularly when you consider the speed and talent on the field.

Oklahoma has set a record for points scored this year.  Much of that can be attributed to the move to a hurry-up, no-huddle offense.  The Sooners seem to score 21 points on every opponent in the first quarter.  They get teams in a hole, and they “pin their ears back” defensively the rest of the game.  The Sooner offense really took off later in the season when running back DeMarco Murray began to feel more comfortable with his knee after an injury last year.

In general, teams win when they can run the football and stop the run with only a rare exception (see Sugar Bowl, Utah).  That should play in Florida’s favor.  They have all of their rushing weapons available, but Oklahoma will

Citadel v Florida

have to without DeMarco Murray.   On the flip side, Florida will have speedy receiver Percy Harvin for the national title game.   What’s more, OU will have to stop Tebow and Company without 315 pound DT  DeMarcus Granger who had back surgery.

Oklahoma still has the passing game, and that should keep the game interesting.  Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford has had few problems staying upright this year as he had a fanatastic year.  But, as in the Texas and TCU games, a pass rush can give him enough problems to be almost average.  You can bet that Florida Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong has studied those games closely.  My pick is Florida.  Let’s see how it turns out.

Top Ten Heisman Trophy Contenders

Here is my Top Ten Heisman Trophy Contenders.  Most of these guys are already on the radar.  This list is in no particular order.

  1. Tim Tebow, Florida–He’s the defending Heisman Trophy winner, and the fist Heisman Trophy winner as a Sophomore.  And, he may have more websites dedicated to him than any other college football player.
  2. Chase Daniel, Missouri–He is important to the Missouri offense, so if he stays healthy, he is a part of the, um, chase.
  3. Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech–The Air Raid offense at Texas Tech has never had this much talent.  He is big, strong, and fast.
  4. Pat White, West Virginia–WVU will depend even more on White to lead its offense with the departure of Steve Slaton.  The Mountaineers already have a website for White.
  5. James Laurinaitis, Ohio State–There is always one defensive player everyone wants in the conversation, well this him.  Destined for stardom in the NFL, not the WWE.
  6. Chris Wells, Ohio StateWells opened the BCS National Title Game against LSU with a 65 yard TD run ending the game with 146 yards rushing.
  7. Knowshon Moreno, Georgia–Moreno had a stellar Freshman season, and he only started half the games.  He really is a superstar.
  8. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech–Last year’s CFTT Offensive Player of the year.  His stats were astounding, but his efficiency may be even more so.
  9. Percy Harvin, Florida–Electrifying.  Fast.  If Harvin can stay healthy, his stats will be big.
  10. James Davis, Clemson–O.K.  I am listening to everybody else here.  I don’t know much about Clemson, but everyone seems to think that Davis will have a big year.

Possible Surprises

Mike Goodson, Texas A & M
Todd Boeckman, Ohio State
Joe McKnight, USC
LeSean McCoy, Pitt
Ian Johnson, Boise State
C. J. Spiller, Clemson

Preseason Magazines Preview Part Two

Continued from Part One

To do further comparison, I decided to take two football teams, in this case Florida and Idaho, and see how each magazine does its analysis.  Why Florida and Idaho?  Florida is ranked as preseason number one by two of the magazines (Phil Steele and Athlon) and in the top ten by the others.  Florida returns Heisman Trophy winning QB Tim Tebow and WR Percy Harvin which will garner a lot of preseason press.  Florida represents the BCS teams.  Idaho, represents the non BCS teams.  There is not much hype surrounding Idaho which is not expected to be very competitive.

Florida

Phil Steele has two pages for Florida.  His features include Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Receivers, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Defensive Backs, Special Teams and Florida FootballCoaches.  Phil has his forecast for the Gators as well as his projected starting lineups.  He includes a Top Newcomers box at the bottom of the fist page.  His schedule box is pretty comprehensive including stats against each opponent as well as the type of turf, a place to write in the Line, the Final Score and whether it was a won or a loss.  Of course the box includes a phone number for the weather in Gainesville, FL.  The second page is lined with a series of stats, many of which go back 5 to 6 years including results from their games dating back t o 2003.  He also includes the last five bowl games.

Sporting News also has two pages.  The core is a narration based analysis of Florida which includes highlights of top players on the Florida team such as LB Brandon Spikes, RB Kestahn Moore, and Defensive Linemen Torrey Davis and Carlos Dunlap.  On the first page is a small box which includes the 2008 schedule along with results against that team from 2007.  There is a Power Ratings box and a Bowl Projection, a Next Big Thing.  SN also offers a Recruiting Report box.  The final page includes a Depth Chart along with a Returning Stat Leaders and 2007 Team Stats.  Finally, SN has a nice looking little graphic which covers Florida’s 5 Year Wins Trend.

Athlon and Lindy’s must have been edited by the same guy.  The format seems almost identical.  Each magazine gives Florida one page.  There are three small boxes on the bottom page which covers the 2008 Schedule, 2007 Results, and 2007 National Rankings.  The side box to the right is the depth chart with “returning starters in bold.”  Each magazine does an analysis with sections including Offense, Defense, Special Teams/Specialists, Final Analysis/Overview.

Idaho

Phil Steele repeats the exact same format for Idaho that it does for Florida (see above).  There are two pages, loads of stats, features, etc.  I find it interesting that Phil Steele gives the Vandals the same Idaho Vandalstreatment that he does Florida, with a phone number for the weather in Moscow, Idaho and everything.  On the other heand, Sporting News does no such favor.  By the time one arrives to Idaho’s spot, he sees a half a page.  There is not Depth Chart, no Recruiting Report, no Team Stats or Stat Leaders, and no graphic with the 5 Year Wins Trend.  This lack of coverage does not seem to be the same with all of the non BCS teams in SN.  Teams which are projected to finish at the top of the conference get more coverage.  Life is tough win your program struggles to win games and is projected to finish low.

Lindy’s and Athlon uses the same format with Idaho that they do with Florida.  The Vandals get the same one page format with the analysis, the Depth Chart, the schedule and results.  At least Lindy’s and Athlon treat the two programs the same.  Of course, Florida gets more press in other areas like preseason awards and honors.

Continue to Part Three